Intense jockeying for seats in Politburo

Much attention and intense speculation have been focused of late on who China's top seven or nine leaders in the new Politburo Standing Committee will be.

But what also commands interest is the 24-member Politburo, from where the Standing Committee leaders will be drawn.

By the end of the leadership transition in China next week, only 10 - or fewer than half the current crop of Politburo members - will remain in power.

This is the highest turnover in the leadership ranks of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) in a decade. Hence the tussle for the soon-to-be vacated seats in this elite decision-making body is no less intense than at the Standing Committee.

"An overall balance of various interests will still be key and will need to be maintained," China politics expert Steve Tsang from the University of Nottingham said of the selection process.

Achieving this delicate balance means that age, gender, seniority, regional affiliations, military background and, of course, political patronage, need to be factored in.

The first cut is usually based on age. Only 11 people in the current Politburo will meet the unofficial cut-off age of 67 when the 18th Party Congress opens on Thursday. They include Vice-President Xi Jinping, 59, and Vice-Premier Li Keqiang, 57.

"It is safe to say all will stay on, with one marginal case," said China politics analyst Bo Zhiyue from the East Asian Institute in Singapore.

That person is former Xinjiang party chief Wang Lequan, who turns 68 next month.

While he technically beats the age guillotine, he is widely expected to retire, together with President Hu Jintao, Premier Wen Jiabao and others.

A handful of regional kingpins who have performed well in recent years are expected to be inducted into the Politburo.

In the running are Guo Jinlong, party boss of Beijing, and Han Zheng, Shanghai's mayor, who has been tipped to become the city's party chief.

Also primed for promotion are the leaders of less prominent provinces such as Xinjiang's Zhang Chunxian, Sichuan's Liu Qibao and Shaanxi's Zhao Leji.

A few prized slots can go to party apparatchiks who have done well in the central government's bureaucracy.

President Hu's aide, Wang Huning, Public Security Minister Meng Jianzhu and Commerce Minister Chen Deming have emerged as contenders.

The two generals in the current Politburo will retire and will most likely be replaced by Generals Fan Changlong and Xu Qiliang, who were yesterday appointed the highest-ranking military men.

It means the presence of the People's Liberation Army in politics remains the same.

"I think the composition of the Politburo will remain similar to the current one. No major change will take place in terms of civil- military balance, gender or central-local lines," said Peking University analyst Zhang Jian.

Some speculate that one more woman will join the Politburo.

Fujian party chief Sun Chunlan is a favoured candidate for promotion, joining State Councillor Liu Yandong, the only woman in the elite body now.

But most eyes will be on who among the so-called "sixth generation" leaders will get into the Politburo, when the announcement is made, possibly on Nov 15.

"Sixth generation" refers to officials born after 1960 and are slated to succeed Xi and his cohort in 2022, when the next major leadership change will take place.

The most mentioned names from this group are Inner Mongolia party chief Hu Chunhua, Jilin party boss Sun Zhengcai and Hunan party head Zhou Qiang.

"These are widely speculated to be among the top young officials from whom the next Standing Committee members may be chosen," said Professor Zhang.