Publication Date : 09-04-2013
It is almost unheard of for a dictator who entered from the back door, ruled for years but eventually lost out, to try to get in again, this time from the front door. Yet this is what Gen. Musharraf seeks to achieve in Pakistan. More usual for a rejected despot is the gloomy ride in a tumbril, taking him to obscurity or even to physical oblivion. But that is not for Gen. Musharraf. Some six years after losing power, he is ready to try again, making a bid through the general election that is shortly to be held in Pakistan.
The years of exile have not discouraged him or dampened his will. Approaching 70, he is fit and feisty, hardened by adversity and not lacking in self-belief. He has been a regular fixture on the lecture circuit in the USA and Europe and has retained a public profile through meetings with prestigious groups of experts like New York’s Council for Foreign Relations. Some loyalists have remained close to him over the years, and have no doubt helped raise the necessary support to permit him to make a bid for power.
Some sort of political organisation has been set up to back the General--not unusual in this part of the world, where a well-known public figure can readily draw in political aspirants hoping to rise with him. For his supporters, there would be some gratification in seeing that the return of Musharraf has been the biggest story of the election so far.
But it has not been an easy homecoming for the General. There are various legal cases to be negotiated before he can feel that his electoral bid will not be hobbled by judicial activism--as it is, he has had to appear before the Bench and has been forbidden from leaving the country without judicial permission, a prohibition he has been candid enough to acknowledge as distressing. He has also been subjected to death threats by extremist elements who regard him as dangerously unsound in belief and habit, and while such voices are isolated ones in Pakistan, it is not to be forgotten that persons of this type made more than one bid to assassinate Gen. Musharraf when he was in power, and may be emboldened to try again when the state’s protective cover is less comprehensive.
Nevertheless, notwithstanding the obstacles, the General has been active in his political campaign, and this despite the widely-expressed scepticism about his chances of making any sort of impact on the election. The big battalions, that he was once able to deploy to bolster his regime, now march to a different beat. The present Chief of Army has been at pains to project his backing for a fair election, and while Musharraf himself may claim that he seeks nothing more, he can scarcely shed the label of having been a dictator during his period of rule. Pakistan congratulates itself for the unusual achievement of seeing a democratically elected government complete its full term, thus there may be few takers for the return of someone who had intervened against the elected prime minister--as it happens, the same individual who was deposed at that time has now emerged as a front-runner in the upcoming political contest. Little wonder that few of his countrymen take the Musharraf bid at all seriously or consider the political supremacy he projects for himself as anything but delusionary.
India has had a very mixed experience of the Musharraf years of rule. His military coup against the elected Nawaz Sharif raised many apprehensions about his readiness to deal with the democratic rulers of New Delhi who had already observed carefully as he kept his distance when Mr Vajpayee made his historic bus yatra to Lahore. His role in instigating the Kargil hostilities was especially condemned for its aggressive intent and its damaging consequences--this remains a blot on his record. Yet it became evident in time that Gen. Musharraf was capable of initiatives that could make a real difference in South Asia. He had a bold and confident style and felt capable of pressing on when other, more cautious individuals might have hesitated.
By combining in himself the roles of Head of Army as well as Head of Government, especially the former, he felt fully in command and beyond any challenge at home. There was, of course, more than a touch of hubris in this, as events were to show, but in his prime he felt self-assured enough to look for "out-of-box" solutions to the intractable problems between his country and India. More than any other, he tried to address the "core issue" of Kashmir.
He came to Agra to meet Mr Vajpayee and believed progress was made even though there was no breakthrough.
Back-channel contacts were developed and when Dr Manmohan Singh became PM, these were intensified. No formal account has been given by either side but enough has been said, especially by senior Pakistani leaders who would have been in the know, including Gen. Musharraf himself, to suggest that some critical points of agreement had been achieved, well beyond anything accomplished in previous discussions.
The various public statements by former principals indicate that what was being shaped through the back channel was a settlement that, critically, would not involve territorial transfers to either side--that is to say, the LOC would take on more of the features of an international boundary. Movement to and fro across the sundered parts of J&K would be made easier, in accordance with the desire of the people of the State, and trade would be permitted--some progress on these issues has in fact been made. The delicate matter of demilitarisation also seemed to have figured in the discussions and some solutions envisaged that would meet the wishes of the local people without compromising the needs of security. Some provisions for statutory consultation between the authorities on the two sides were also visualised, especially on shared resources like water, forests and environment. Though much about the back channel remains obscure, it seems to have created a genuine moment of expectation in bilateral affairs.
That it was not to be scarcely needs mention. While the plan was still advancing, Gen. Musharraf lost power and was forced to leave his country. Those who succeeded him shunned his legacy in detail, for its non-democratic origins. The back channel sputtered on, perhaps does so still, without promising any breakthrough. Gen. Musharraf’s last hurrah has him back in his country but not, it would seem, with any great prospects. Yet what the back channel yielded was pragmatic and sensible, serving the real interest of both sides. When the time finally comes, these concepts could be the bedrock of lasting agreement.
The writer is India’s former Foreign Secretary.
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