Publication Date : 05-05-2013
Some time late tonight or early tomorrow, the world will have a good picture of which way the dice fell in Malaysia's most vigorously contested general election.
Malaysian Prime Minister Najib Razak, son and nephew of former prime ministers, began the campaign by voicing "cautious optimism" for his ruling Barisan Nasional's (BN) chances. He ended it on a high note, waxing confident about regaining a two-thirds majority in Parliament.
Anwar Ibrahim, the opposition's biggest name, has said publicly that big crowds at rallies organised by his Pakatan Rakyat need not translate into votes. But he, too, is confident that the popular force is with him.
A poll by the respected Merdeka Centre released last Friday evening had their chances roughly even, with 46 of the 222 parliamentary constituencies too close to call. A closer look at the survey suggests that the challengers may be ahead by a nose in Peninsular Malaysia, an advantage that could be neutralised by the resources available to the incumbent and steadfast support for BN from the Borneo states of Sarawak and Sabah.
Even without surveys predicting a tight race and the forces unleashed by a resurgent opposition facing a resolute government, there was enough tension in the build-up to Malaysia's 13th General Election, with people emotionally invested as never before.
With 2.5 million new names among the 13.3 million eligible voters, there is an unprecedented number of young and first-timers heading to polling booths today. Political surveys show that more young people support the opposition.
In some families, there is a split along generational lines. Other fault lines may show up as the counting proceeds.
Today, fully three-quarters of Malaysians are urban dwellers. It is with the urban crowd that opposition figures have found the most traction.
However, electoral boundaries, last redrawn in 2003, do not reflect this reality, leaving an overwhelming number of seats in areas listed as "rural". Since Umno's base is really the rural hinterland, this could lead to a situation where the eventual seat distribution doesn't reflect the popular vote. That could leave some with a sense of having been robbed.
There is also a trust deficit. With almost every important mainstream media outlet controlled by people close to the ruling coalition, people have turned en masse to the Internet and social media to get an alternate view. Every government announcement is subjected to an amazing level of scrutiny and scepticism.
And then there is race.
The BN - and its precursor, the Alliance - has ruled Malaysia for nearly six decades on a broad compact that brought the three main racial groups - Malays, Chinese and Indians - under its umbrella. But Chinese disdain for the BN component party - Malaysian Chinese Association (MCA) - has been rising, surveys show. In 2008, MCA contested 40 parliamentary seats and won just 15. This time, it is contesting 37 seats, and even so, some party officials fear a severe setback.
Should that happen and BN prevail, as it seems confident of doing, the coalition will appear tomorrow morning as a Malay group, seemingly bereft of Chinese support. On the other hand, should the Chinese-oriented Democratic Action Party's rising stock with the community help propel the opposition to power, it could lead to fears that the Chinese will demand a larger representation in Cabinet, stoking Malay insecurities.
Such are the scenarios Malaysians will have to tackle after the election. In all likelihood, it will be a situation that will take some getting used to. A first-past-the-post system has inherent flaws that leave it incapable of fully reflecting the ground.
"The reality is that no one side can claim absolute support from the people," English daily The Star said in an editorial yesterday. "Yet, when the mandate is given, they must do their best to be relevant to all. We must let go of the bitterness of the campaign and work on reconciliation and healing."
For all these reasons, it is important for Malaysians to keep calm as they digest the results.
Police chief Ismail Omar has vowed that his men would keep the peace as a professional force, even as rumours of possible unrest have led many to stock up on food and essentials.
The last time Malaysia saw race riots, it was after a general election in 1969. Parliament was then suspended for a year, a development never to be wished upon the modern Malaysian state.
This year's campaign period began with a sense of bonhomie as some of the biggest rivals shook hands and sat down for breakfast together. Malaysia's neighbours, and the broader world, will be wishing for an equally cordial conclusion to the election process.
Post a Comment
Post a Comment